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Mar 25, 2019

March Madness and Predicting the Future

For all of us who are “March Madness” fans, this is a great article.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2018-04-03/ncaa-bracket-was-better-all-rest-2018

Given all the upsets in the first round of the tournament last year, some lucky ESPN entrant, “Che 3”, accurately guessed 80% of the games, including the finals matchup and the eventual winner, Villanova.

That’s impressive.

Until you realize that there were 17.3 million entries into the ESPN contest. And the very best one was only 80% right.

Predicting the future is a tricky business. Joshua Ramos wrote a fascinating novel on the topic titled “The Age of the Unthinkable.” Basically, it’s a bunch of case studies on how bad we humans are at predicting the future. Even the super-smart humans.

https://www.amazon.com/Unthinkable-First-Joshua-Cooper-Ramo/dp/1408700581/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1522851729&sr=1-2&keywords=the+age+of+the+unthinkable&dpID=415KoqBr8kL&preST=_SY291_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_&dpSrc=srch

One of the activities we do most often is to forecast how a client’s annual mail plan will perform. It’s a time-consuming process carefully discerning all the variables that impact a plan. And though our plans aren’t perfect, we are far closer than 80% accuracy– even without 17.3 million attempts.

“GO BIG” ISN’T ALWAYS BEST

In 2013, we were chatting about how the technological movement known as “big data” was at its tipping point and it seemed that nothing was going to stop it. And… that was right. Nothing has stopped it. Since then, even large companies like ® are finding ways of using...

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Twenty Years of Knowing More

In September, Analytical Ones begins its 20th year providing fundraising analytics and donor behavior research for nonprofit organizations and their advertising agency partners. Over the past two decades, we have been fortunate to serve hundreds of clients. While many...

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