Fall Forecast

Fall Forecast

Not to be a Negative Nelly, but do y’all remember last December? Last December we had the triple-downer of: a sharp stock market decline;a government shutdown; andgeneral political divisiveness. The net effect was one of the poorest performing fundraising Decembers of the past decade. If you’ve read the news lately, among the headlines are topics such as: stock market nervousness over the China trade-war (and September/October historically tends to be a common month for crashes);concern of a government shutdown on September 30 over the Administration’s plan to cutoff of international aid; andgeneral political divisiveness. In times of economic uncertainty, donors are hesitant to add new organizations to their giving portfolios. This could mean a rough acquisition season. However, your most loyal donors tend to step up their giving during adverse economic environments. Hopefully I’m wrong and we’ll have a stellar fall acquisition season where the money just rolls in. But on the chance that my concerns are justified, it might be good to start planning for a CYE telemarketing campaign to your best donors to fill the potential gap. I know a lot of organizations (more correctly, their BODs) hate TM. But may I suggest one piece of advice: get over it. TM works. And in economic adverse times, your organization needs to utilize all the tools available to secure the funds you need to fulfill your...
O.I. = Success

O.I. = Success

In a blog last month, I challenged you peruse the A.I. articles in your LinkedIn account, and I predicted that the articles would fall into two categories: A.I. will save us!A.I. will doom us! Anyone who has read my blogs knows that I tend to Andy Rooney like on new technologies. I think it comes with age. During my career I have heard so many promises of how technologies will make our lives better, only to experience the disappointment of experiencing no improvement. Or in some cases, the horror of a new technology leaving us worse off. But here’s the thing, A.I. will rely on your organization’s O.I. (Organic Intelligence). Without the O.I., you will not be able to leverage the A.I. And really, you don’t need to be chasing A.I. yet. There is plenty of low-hanging fruit harnessing the data you already have on your database. That is, if you get your organization’s O.I. right. Start...
Same as it Ever Was?

Same as it Ever Was?

Last week, I was revisiting some 10-year old analyses. It was both comforting and alarming at the same moment. Comforting in the fact that your Multi-Year donors today (those who have given to you in at least the last two consecutive years) perform very similarly to the way they did 10 to 15-years ago. Then as now, Multi-Year donors are just rock-solid performers. The metrics hadn’t meaningfully changed, other than their average gift is now a little higher. That means, acquiring donors who you can move to a Multi-Year relationship is still the name of the fundraising game. However, the decline in two trends over the past decade are alarming: New donor acquisition and Second-Year retention. This won’t surprise anyone. It’s getting harder to acquire New donors and even harder to retain them. Second-Year retention was still in the 40% range back then. Probably because most New donors were acquired via direct mail. Those donors still retain well even today. But with the transition of acquiring donors in multiple channels today comes this downside: these donors acquired in other channels just don’t stick as well as direct mail donors. The big consequence to lower acquisition and poorer second year retention of course, are declining file sizes. If an organization of 20,000 active donors lost 3% of their file every year, after 10-years the active donor counts will be under 15,000. That’s scary stuff. Our only saving grace is that for most organizations, the donors who are active are giving larger gifts. These larger gifts have mitigated the falling active donor counts. This trend will not last forever. The big...