Learn more about analytics and research best practices, as well as real world examples and solutions for nonprofits.

RECENT POSTS

May 31, 2021

The Regression to the Mean has Begun

A year ago, all of us in the business of fundraising were nervous. Lockdowns were taking place across the world, there were shortages of toilet paper and no one was sure how donors would respond.

No one could have predicted that donors would respond in a such an overwhelming positive manner. Starting in April 2020, donors to those organizations who were on the front lines of the pandemic response gave at an unprecedented level – and they continued giving big-heartedly month after month.

While the top story of 2020 will of course be the pandemic, for us in fundraising, we will also remember the extreme generosity of donors who made 2020 one of the best fundraising years on record. Revenue, retention, reactivation and new donor acquisition were at high marks for many organizations.

But, as the pandemic recedes from our daily lives – at least here in the United States – we can also expect that donor performance will, as us analysts like to say, “regress to the mean.” In fact, our first views of April results show that this is already starting.

For those organizations that had record years in 2020, we forecast that revenue, retention, reactivation and new donor acquisition performance will return to their pre-pandemic levels in the coming year.

We all knew this would eventually happen.

Of course, this is going to make budgeting and forecasting for the coming year really tricky. So, please be careful. If you need some help with forecasting your budgets for the coming year, let’s have a conversation. We have some very reliable forecasting tools that can estimate different scenarios on where your revenues will land in the coming year.

And while revenue reductions are never pleasant, we all need to take a step back and remember the extraordinary way donors stepped it up during the pandemic. We have a lot to be grateful about.

Micro-Sustainers to Lapsed Donors

Each fall, we here at Analytical Ones survey the trends in fundraising and come up with testing ideas for your fall campaigns. Last year, we recommended testing first class postage, to avoid the USPS’s SOP of delivering all nonprofit postage appeals on the same day....

read more

Part VII: How Analytical Ones Will be Using AI

Over the past couple of weeks, I have written about some potential effects that AI will have on the nonprofit sector. Today, I’m going to end this series on how we as a company intend to use AI. There’s no doubt there is a certain “wow-factor” using AI. It’s like Star...

read more

Part VI: The Environmental Impact of AI

Up to this point in our AI blog series, I have been discussing (some might say ragging on) the practical implementational challenges of AI in the nonprofit sector. In today’s blog, I’m shifting the focus on a more global issue: Is using AI environmentally sustainable?...

read more

ARCHIVES

© 2025 Analytical Ones